Introduction
Power generation
is facing major challenges in the next one or two decades. The
liberalisation of the electricity and gas markets in many countries
calls for complex systems of control, simulation, information
and communication but also for less capital-intensive and for
decentralised power generation technologies. New entrepreneurial
activities like energy trading, contracting or mulit-utility services
become increasingly important. Fast emerging countries in Asia
and Latin America offer new opportunities for power generation
but impose special boundary conditions. Although with no specific
obligation to reduce emissions, the preparation for future targets
already influences the investment decisions of today in these
countries. On top two billion people on the world do not have
access to electricity yet. Their seeking for power supply is an
open market for decentralised power systems but also for the surrounding
business activities financing, contracting and product accompanying
services which could be the key to develop these markets. The
attempt to mitigate climate change poses pressure on fossil fuel
based power generation. Coal base power generation may not only
be limited for reasons of climate protection but also to improve
air quality in urban areas. The strong increase of gas use poses
questions on the future price development of gas prices especially
in connection to the oil price, a fuel that is about to reach
the mid depletion point in the mid term.
The changes in
the boundary conditions of energy use and electricity generation
are likely to significantly effect the technology portfolio of
technology supplying companies, particularly if these changes
occur in periods of liberalisation of energy markets, new emerging
conversion technologies and entrepreneurial innovations (e.g.
emission trading).
Objectives
A policy analysis
will focus on the liberalisation process, the GHG emission mitigation
policies in electricity generation including the policy options
on emission trading and project-based compliance with Kyoto targets.
The policy analysis also includes combinations of energy policy
measures at the national level (e.g. voluntary agreements in combination
with the Kyoto mechanisms) in those countries covered by a techno-economic
analysis. The time horizon of the policy analysis covers the period
up to 2015.
For evaluating
the impacts on power generation of specific changes of the boundary
conditions (e.g. energy prices at international energy markets,
perspectives of economic growth of world regions and countries
considered, new power generating technologies) existing techno-economic
models or model systems are to be used, modified or enlarged.
The model (or model system) will simulate the techno-economic
energy system of a country, the greenhouse gas emissions from
all energy use with an particular focus on power generation and
co-generation; it will be operated for alternative emission limitations
for 2015, calculating the technological options, emission trading
and the related mitigation costs and prices of emission certificates.
At the project
level, a micro-technical sub-model for simulating centralised
or decentralised electricity generation or co-generation will
be developed in order to evaluate these technical options regarding
costs and emissions and also the opportunities of project-based
Joint Implementation and CDM projects, including their possible
baselines and avoided GHG emissions. The results will be used
in the bottom up model mentioned above.
The results will
be used to identify promising technological paths and markets
of electricity producing technologies. The market perspectives
will be exemplified by analysing the situation and possible developments
of typical countries in the OECD and in a developed country.
The project objective
is to develop and operate an instrument exploring the impacts
of the liberalisation of electricity and gas markets, of possibly
increasing prices for fossil fuels, of relevant technical innovations
affecting electricity consumption and the technological mix of
power generation, and of the Kyoto mechanisms for selected cases
on technological change, on business and research opportunities
and possible risks.
