PROJECTS
Development of an Energy Modeling System
with Techno-Economic Submodels for Switzerland
Entwicklung eines energiewirtschaftlichen
Modellsystems mit technologisch-ökonomischen Submodellen für
die Schweiz
Investigators
Bernard Aebischer,
Martin Jakob, Reinhard
Madlener, Eberhard Jochem,
Gürkan Kumbaroglu,
Stefan Muster
Partner
None
Time Frame
7/2001- 1/2005
Funding
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETHZ)
Abstract
The objective of the research project is to develop a new model
system for simulating the Swiss energy system and energy economy
on the basis of the models already existing at CEPE and the Fraunhofer
Institute of Systems and Innovation Research (FhG-ISI). The new
model system should also allow close co-operation with the MARKAL
model group at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in Villigen/CH
and the two groups LASEN and LENI at the Federal Institute of Technology
Lausanne (EPFL).
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1 English Summary
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The planned research includes the refinement of an existing modelling
system for elaborating energy efficiency strategies and policies
for Switzerland by studying their economic, technological, entrepreneurial
and environmental implications. It is intended to enlarge an existing
energy flow model simulating the industrial energy demand by capital
and operating cost of energy efficiency investments, their dynamics,
and structural change in industry. An interdependency framework
will be developed which transfers the results of the technology-oriented
industrial model to an existing macro-economic model called SCREEN.
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2 Project Description
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The aim of the research is to improve the evaluation possibilities
of sectoral energy efficiency policies. Economic, technical and
organisational potentials of energy efficiency are manifold in
industry, but their application is depending on existing obstacles,
traditional decision making and market imperfections. In order
to assess these potentials and suitable policy measures aiming
to realize the economic potentials, a process-oriented modeling
approach is considered today to be most appropriate. Therefore,
it is intended to develop a combined interdependency modeling
framework which reflects the interplay between energy technologies-
here in the industrial sector-, related costs, energy policy measures
at a detailed level and their impacts at a macro-economic level.
Several sectoral models are currently available or being developed
at CEPE two years after its foundation. These include an industrial
energy simulation model and an energy simulation model for combined
heat and power generation. Besides a family of econometric models,
there is a computable general equilibrium model called SCREEN
that would allow to analyse the impacts of energy efficiency scenarios
of the industrial sector on the economy, if a link between the
two models would exist. It is envisaged to integrate the distinct
models by transferring the results of the sectoral (bottom up)
model to the Input/output model of the SCREEN model. But before
the planned linkage will be implemented, the existing industrial
model is planned to be refined by the following three aspects:
(1) simulation of sectors or subsectors by multi-agent simulation
in order to relate to different types of obstacles and entrepreneurial
cultures (e.g. innovators, followers, late applicants); the necessary
data will be taken from results of existing and new surveys. (2)
introduction of the dynamics of cost by learning and economies
of scale effects for selected new technologies and different types
of investments; (3) integration of inter- and intra-industrial
structural changes due to different growth of products and increasing
content of know how and product -accompanying services; again,
survey material and interview results will be used. Several scenarios
will be designed for 2010 and 2020, including policy measures
and general instruments (e.g. the CO2 surcharge of the Swiss CO2
law).
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3 Results
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4 Publications
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Kumbaroglu, G., Madlener, R. Energy and Climate Policy Analysis
with the Hybrid Bottom-Up Computable General Equilibrium Model
SCREEN: The Case of the Swiss CO2 Act, Annals
of Operations Research, Special Issue on "OR models
for energy policy, planning and management" (forthcoming).
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Frei, C., Haldi, P.-A., and G. Sarlos (2002). Dynamic formulation
of a top-down and bottom-up merging energy policy model, Energy
Policy (forthcoming).
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Kumbaroglu, G., Madlener, R. (2001). A Description of the
Hybrid Bottom-Up CGE Model SCREEN with an Application to
Swiss
Climate Policy Analysis, CEPE Working Paper No. 10, November.
(pdf, 1.34
MB)
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Frei, C. (2001). Bottom-Up Activity Analysis in a Computable
General Equilibrium Framework: Case of Electricity, Ph.D.
Thesis No. 2327 (2001), EPFL, Lausanne.
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5 Presentations
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