PROJECTS
Energy Navigator- a Project Dedicated
to the 150th Anniversary of
ETH Zurich
Zielsetzung und Monitoring zur Energieeffizienz und CO2-Minderung
der Schweizer Wirtschaft
ETH Researchers
Boulouchos, Konstantinos,
Maschinenbau u. Verfahrenstech, Institut für Energietechnik
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Catenazzi, Giacomo Amabile, Maschinenbau
u. Verfahrenstech, CEPE, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics
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Jochem, Eberhard, Maschinenbau
u. Verfahrenstech, CEPE, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics
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Kartsoni,
Aikaterini, Maschinenbau u. Verfahrenstech, Institut für
Energietechnik
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Noembrini,
Fabrizio, Maschinenbau u. Verfahrenstech, Institut für
Energietechnik
Time Frame
11/2003 - 12/2005
Abstract
The “Energy Navigator” is a project dedicated to the 150th anniversary
of ETH Zurich, demonstrating both the complexity of energy use
in industrial societies and its reduction to concise information
for decision making and policy in order to meet the challenges
of this century beyond the fossil age.
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1 English Summary
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This project aims at developing a computational energy system
model which simulates the energy demand for Switzerland for the
timeframe between 2010 and 2030 with an option to extend up to
2050. The model will represent energy technology economic scenarios
on the basis of a system dynamics approach.
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2 Background and Introduction
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In the coming decades, the threat and first consequences of
climate change, the mid-depletion point of conventional oil and
of the re-concentration of crude oil production in the Near East
will compel industrialised as well as developing nations to make
much more efficient use of energy. R&D that helps to realise
energy efficiency potentials is likely to be regarded as important
in scientific, entrepreneurial, and political realms. Demand
for highly energy-efficient and for renewable energy technologies
will rise steeply, and firms that can provide them are likely
to prosper.
Switzerland has been taking up these challenges pro-actively
at the federal level during the last few years, by introducing
the energy law and the CO2 law, by ratifying the Kyoto Protocol,
and by new building codes and policies for the development of
renewables at the level of cantons or cities. However, increasing
income, mobility, demand for convenience, and related lifestyles
tend to compensate the overall efficiency improvements and the
shift to natural gas or renewable energies. As there is no doubt
that the challenges will increase within the next few decades,
and as the re-investment cycles of the building stock, the production
capacities, and infrastructures typically last for several decades,
early actions and long-term perspectives by governments and technology
producers – become increasingly important.
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3 Objectives
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Given these challenges, fast technical change of energy-using
and -converting technologies to higher efficiencies, lower losses
and less pollution become a central issue. But fast technical
change may only be realised if the new technologies have a chance
of being economically competitive and politically acceptable.
Therefore, the objective of the project is:
- to develop an energy model system that encompasses new technological
solutions, their dynamics of cost, their integration in the existing
capital stock and the social environment including aspects of
market failures, externalities and policy options or entrepreneurial
innovations.
- to make the assumptions, the major causal relationships, and
the results of future energy use and its impact on economy and
society easily understandable to an informed user of the energy
model system (by means of a “Navigator”).
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4 Methodology
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The model system consists out of a set of sub models, which describe
the final energy demand
sectors, the energy conversion sector, and a cost integrating
model (see figure). The transformation
model transfers macroeconomic and demographic drivers of energy
demand into set of
differentiated drivers needed by the process-oriented sub models
(residential dwellings, electrical
appliances, service sector, industry sector and transportation).
These process-oriented sub models
which calculate final energy demand deliver the information for
the energy conversion model and
the cost model, which calculates energy related investment costs,
changed energy and maintenance
cost. This information on additional investment costs is used
to implement a hard link to the macro
model (input-output model) which calculates structural changes
implied by energy related
investments. If these effects of a policy driven scenario differ
significantly from a non-policy driven
reference run, the transformation model uses this policy case
related information in order to
generate a new set of energy drivers for the process-oriented
sub models. This hard linkage between
a macro-economic model and process-oriented sub models is quite
a unique configuration, which
facilitates scenario, parameter sensitivity and variant analysis
in a consistent way. The methodology
draws upon technical, economic, policy and applied computer engineering
knowledge in an
intensive interdisciplinary manner.
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5 Results
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First results of a Reference Scenario closely designed to the
Reference Scenario of the ongoing
energy demand projection of the Federal Office of Energy will
be available in November 2005. The
Swiss Input-Output Table was estimated for 2001, as the old one
was outdated (year 1995). The
completed Navigator will enable the expert to design his own
set of boundary conditions or policy
measures and analyse the impact on energy demand, emissions,
cost and employment.
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6 Publications
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Nathani C., Wickart M., Oleschak R., and van Nieuwkoop R.,
2005-03-31. Estimation of a
Swiss input-output table for 2001 / Technical report (Preliminary
and incomplete draft version
as of April 1, 2005. CEPE ETH Zürich / UP ETH Zürich
/ ECOPLAN Bern, Zürich / Bern.
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