PROJECTS
CO2 Mitigation Potential by Increasing
Use of Natural Gas and Renewable Energies and by Enhanced Energy
Efficiency in Switzerland Until 2010
Investigators
Eberhard Jochem,
Bernard Aebischer, Reinhard
Madlener, Martin Jakob,
Gürkan Kumbaroglu,
Giacomo Catenazzi, Marcel
Wickart
Partner
PSI, ESU
services, schwarz
& partners
Time Frame
4/2001 - 2/2002 (phase 1), 3/2002-2/2003 (phase 2)
Funding
Verband der Schweizerischen
Gasindustrie (VSG)
Abstract
The research project "CO2 Mitigation Potential of Natural Gas" examines
the contribution of energy efficiency and natural gas use in Switzerland
for the achievement of the CO2 mitigation target until 2010 stipulated
in the Swiss CO2 Act 2000. It also identifies possibilities to reduce
the oil dependency of Switzerland, the im-pacts of electricity and
gas liberalisation, and related mitigation cost of three alternative
scenarios. In the reference scenario, in which the target of the
CO2 Law was not considered, final energy demand only increases by
2.5 % in this decade (elec-tricity demand + 7 %) due to a modest
economic growth and an improvement of energy intensity of some 1
% per year. CO2 emissions stagnate at 46 mio. tonnes per year as
the shift to natural gas compensates for the additional CO2 emissions
of gasoline and diesel use. At present, two target-oriented alternative
policy scenarios, promoting the use of natural gas and renewables,
and the enhancement of energy efficiency, are analysed by looking
at the technical, economic and environmental impacts.
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1 English Summary
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The research project "CO2 Mitigation by Natural Gas Use
and Energy Efficiency in Switzerland" aims to identify and
assess the contribution of natural gas use in Switzerland for
the achievement of the CO2 mitigation target until 2010 stipulated
in the Swiss CO2 Act 2000. Besides this main objective the analysis
considers the possibilities to reduce the oil dependency of Switzerland,
the potentials of increased use of energy efficiency and the impacts
of electricity and gas liberalisation.
The project is divided into two phases, starting with an exploratory
reference scenario without imposed restrictions on CO2 emissions.
The reference scenario results in a stagnation of CO2 emissions
at 46 mio. t/a (including international air transportation), implying
an increase of CO2 emissions by 7 % (or 3.8 % without international
air transportation) relative to 1990; even at the assumed moderate
economic growth rate for the Swiss GDP of 1.4 % per year, the
results imply a major change in energy and climate policy in this
decade, if the targets of the CO2 law or the Kyoto Protocol should
be met. The two target-oriented scenarios try to identify the
possible contributions of natural gas use, renewables and, most
importantly, of energy efficiency in all sectors of the economy.
The preliminary results suggest that it will be extremely difficult
to meet the targets, not because of high additional cost, but
due to lost opportunities during the last 12 years, and limited
opportunities within the reinvestment cycles of the building,
vehicles and other capital stock.
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2 Project Description
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The future potentials for natural gas use in Switzerland are
of interest for at least two major reasons: First, Swiss dependency
on oil is high (47% of primary energy in 2000). The dependency
of road, air and ship transportation on oil products is 100 %,
as in most countries of the world. A reconcentration of the oil
production in the OPEC and in the Middle East with two thirds
of global oil resources is unavoidable. The mid-depletion point
of oil is expected to be reached between 2020 and 2030, implying
substantial increases in world energy prices. Therefore, a diversification
of energy supply is essential for the Swiss economy. Second, with
the CO2 Act 2000 the Swiss government tries to mitigate the GHG
emissions in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. A promotion of
natural gas (with a present share of primary energy of 9.1 %)
will contribute to achieve this target.
The reference scenario was developed in order to identify the
evolution of the GHG emissions with an exploratory approach, i.e.,
this scenario excluded the impact of the CO2 Act 2000 and analysed
the future demand of energy in the residential sector, industry,
services and farming, transportation, non-energetic consumption,
and the conversion sector (sectoral bottom-up modelling), the
substitution between the different energy sources, and the development
of cogeneration in the context of the liberalised European electricity
sector.
Two alternative policy scenarios to meet the targets set by the
CO2 Act 2000 or by the Kyoto Protocol were designed, assuming
policy measures suited for a stronger promotion of natural gas
and renewables, and an enhancement of energy efficiency investments
in all sectors. The two "sustainability" scenarios are compared
to the reference scenario using economic and environmental criteria.
The economic assessment is focused on marginal cost from the point
of energy economics (micro-economic perspective) and draws upon
macro-economic studies already used in similar analysis from the
macro-economic point of view. The ecological evaluation is conducted
with life cycle assessments of the energy carriers for the most
impor-tant GHGs occurring in the production, transport, and distribution
of energy (including indirect emissions resulting from energy
imports).
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3 Results
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Major results for the reference scenario are as follows:
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(1) Final energy demand increases by 2.5% up to some 890 PJ
in 2010, while the intensity of final energy demand improves
by 1.2% per year, a typical average figure of OECD countries
in the last two decades. Electricity demand increases in the
same period (1999-2010) by almost 7% up to some 200 PJ; natural
gas increases its share in final energy from 11% in 1999 to
12.5% in 2010. The changes in the conversion sector are small,
some additional co-generation due to the liberalised electricity
market is assumed for 2004 or later.
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(2) The often heard opinions "dash for gas" tend
towards decentralised energy supply systems, "virtual power
generation" could not be verified under Swiss boundary
conditions due to the long term investments in hydropower (60%
generating share) and nuclear power (36% generating share),
cost-intensive expansion of the gas grid due to topological
circumstances and traditional use of heating oil. Indirectly
induced greenhouse gas emissions by imported energies make up
one third of domestic direct emissions (oil products 7.8 mio.
t CO2 equivalents, natural gas 1.3 mio. t CO2-eq. and electricity
7.6 mio. t CO2-eq.).
First results of the two sustainability scenarios suggest that
the split objectives of the CO2 law may be differently met: while
the 15% reduction of fossil fuels for sta-tionary uses seems to
be in reach of active policy strategies, the 8% reduction of CO2
stemming from gasoline and diesel use seems to be extremely difficult
to achieve. We find some evidence that the CO2 reducing role of
energy substitution by natural gas is important in the residential
and industrial sector (-0.32 mio. t CO2); similar contributions
stem from increased electricity use in all sectors, given the
fact that the significant shares of hydropower and of nuclear
energy in Swiss electricity production will remain.
This particular situation of almost zero CO2 emission from electricity
generation in Switzerland contributes to the non-supporting policy
for co-generation in the framework of the national CO2 law and
the Kyoto Commitment, which, however, offers the opportunity to
realise CO2 emission reductions at the European level, i.e. by
avoiding CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel-based thermal power plants
in neighbouring countries and exporting zero emission electricity
from Switzerland. Although there is some contribution from renewables,
particularly through increased use of wood energy and heat pumps,
the largest part by far has to come from more efficient fuel and
heat use, if Switzerland is going to meet its greenhouse gas emission
targets by 2010. The related additional net cost may not be very
high, given large unexploited and profitable energy efficiency
potentials ('no-regrets'), but policies and entrepreneurial innovations
will first have to overcome existing obstacles and market imperfections
as well as to change existing decision patterns and priorities.
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4 Publications
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Jochem E. and Jakob M. (2005), CO2-Reduktionspotentiale des
Energiesystems in der Schweiz – Handlungsperspektiven
bis 2010, In: Die Volkswirtschaft/Das Magazin für Wirtschaftspolitik,
7/8-2005, 29-32.
[pdf deutsch,
189 kB].
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Jochem E. and Jakob M. (2005), Les potentials de reduction
du CO2 dans le système énergétique suisse:
perspectives jusqu´en 2010, La Vie économique – Revue
de politique économique, 7/8-2005, 29-32.
[pdf
français,
189 kB].
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Jochem E. and Jakob M. (2004), Ziele des CO2-Gesetzes mit
Unterstützung der CO2-Abgabe und weiteren Massnahmen erreichbar,
ETH-Hintergrundinformationen, Presentation at the press conference
at the 6th IAEE European
Energy Conference, Zurich, 4 S.
[pdf,
72 kB].
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Jochem, E. and M. Jakob (Eds.)(2004). Energy Perspectives and
CO2 Mitigation Potentials in Switzerland until 2010. Energy
Efficiency and Substitution by Natural Gas and Renewable Energies
(Energieperspektiven und CO2-Reduktionspotentiale in der Schweiz
bis 2010. Energieeffizienz sowie Substitution durch Erdgas und
erneuerbare Energien; in German) Vdf-Hochschulverlag, Zurich,
ISBN 3-7281-2916-X.
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Jochem E. and Jakob M. (2003), Energieperspektiven
bis 2010 - CO2 –Reduktionspotentiale des Energiesystems
in der Schweiz, In: gwa (Gas Wasser Abwasser), 9/2003, 665-677.
[pdf
deutsch,
664 kB].
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Jochem E. and Jakob M. (2003), Perspectives en matière
d’énergie d’ici à l’an 2010 Potentiels
de reduction des emissions de CO2 du système énergétique
en Suisse, CEPE EPFZ, 17 S.[pdf
français,
760 kB].
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Aebischer, B., Catenazzi, G., Dones, R., Faist, M., Frischknecht,
R., Gantner, U., Hirschberg, S., Jakob, M., Jochem, E., Jungbluth,
N., Kumbaroglu, G., Kypreos, S., Lienin, S., Madlener, R., Röder,
A., Schwarz, J. (2002). CO2-Reduktionspotential Erdgas. Projektphase
1: Referenzszenario. Studie im Auftrag und in Zusammenar-beit
mit der Schweizerischen Gasindustrie. CEPE / PSI / ESU services
/ schwarz & partners, Zürich / Villigen / Uster. (Schlussbericht
und Kurzfassung)
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5 Presentations
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